PolymarketManifold
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
2 venues tracked+8pp in 24h
15
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will a direct military conflict happen between Iran and Israel before 1 April 2026?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap0/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity0/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum15/15
Total Intel Score15/100
Canonical ID: af599302-bf43-4a1a-8f5a-c481a72580fb
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.