Markets/Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?

Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:06 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$18

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

2% / 4%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1067177