Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Augusto Saturnino Oblitas win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?
Closed March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$81
Liquidity
$516
Bid / Ask
0% / 4%
Spread
3.90pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial…
2026
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Augusto Saturnino Oblitas win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $81 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 3.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Augusto Saturnino Oblitas win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1228179
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