Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Closes September 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$486
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
89% / 90%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
90%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state…
2026
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?" at 90% YES / 10% NO. In the last 24 hours, $486 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 90%, NO 10%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1363964
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