Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:58 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

68%YES

32%NO

Volume 24h

$256

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

67% / 68%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

68%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

68% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

61% YES — lowest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Biggest move: +11.5pp

66% → 78%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

78% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

74% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 68%99%

Buy YES@ 68¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 32¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?" at 68% YES / 32% NO. In the last 24 hours, $256 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 68%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 68%, NO 32%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393317