Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:58 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

24%YES

76%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$59K

Bid / Ask

23% / 25%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

18% → 28%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

34% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

26% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 24%99%

Buy YES@ 24¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 76¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393321