Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
76%
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: +41.5pp
35% → 76%
Mar 3, 2026
Peak probability
76% YES — highest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-5.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472017
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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