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Markets/Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
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Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$31K

Bid / Ask

18% / 19%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Iran strike Syria in March?

March

Full event →
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
95%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?
72%
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?
35%
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?
35%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
20%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
18%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
10%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?
7%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
6%
Will Iran strike Syria in March?
5%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?
4%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
4%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31
4%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
3%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?
2%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
2%
Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?
1%
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?
1%

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-44.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

18% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 7, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

87%

Mar 8, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: +44.0pp

43% → 87%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

87% YES — highest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Current

20% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 20%99%
Buy YES@ 20¢
Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472026

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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