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Markets/Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?
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Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

35%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$46K

Bid / Ask

33% / 35%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

March

Full event →
above $1,700 on March 21?
100%
above $1,600 on March 21?
100%
above $2,000 on March 21?
100%
above $2,100 on March 21?
96%
$2,400 in March?
35%
$2,600 in March?
9%
above $2,200 on March 21?
6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?
5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?
2%
$2,800 in March?
2%
above $2,300 on March 21?
1%
$3,000 in March?
1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?
1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?
1%
$3,200 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?
0%
$3,400 in March?
0%
$4,000 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?
0%
$3,800 in March?
0%
$3,600 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?
0%
above $2,400 on March 21?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?
0%
above $2,600 on March 21?
0%
less than $1,600 on March 21?
0%
greater than $2,500 on March 21?
0%
above $2,500 on March 21?
0%

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-7.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 5, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 13, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

60%

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 18, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -36.0pp

82% → 46%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

90% YES — highest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Current

35% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 35%99%
Buy YES@ 35¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 66¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473070

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Venue Divergence

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