Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:09 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$79K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

March

Full event →

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-29.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

32% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -20.5pp

37% → 17%

Mar 1, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473079