Markets/EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?

EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:48 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

48%YES

52%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

47% / 49%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

60% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

31% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: -23.5pp

63% → 39%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

67% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

50% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 48%99%

Buy YES@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1515617