ForecastMind
Markets/EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
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EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

22%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$78K

Liquidity

$61K

Bid / Ask

21% / 22%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-28.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

17% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

17%

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -28.5pp

46% → 17%

Mar 19, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢
Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $78K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666494