Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
98% / 99%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
March
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
-28.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542472
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