Markets/Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 04:58 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$108K

Liquidity

$41K

Bid / Ask

14% / 14%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -21.6pp

26% → 4%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

19% YES (+1.7pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

-2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.0%

½ Kelly1.0%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $108K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542972