Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$12K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?
March 2026
14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Biggest move: -47.1pp
50% → 2%
Mar 12, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 18, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551478
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.