Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing GBP/USD +0.320 ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$658
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $658 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1578508
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Tisza: 80%, Tisza: 46%, 9: 39%.
Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this