Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing GBP/USD +0.320 ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$632
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
12% / 14%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $632 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1795363
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Tisza: 80%, Tisza: 46%, 9: 39%.
Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this