Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing GBP/USD +0.320 ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
44% / 48%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
46%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1795364
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Tisza: 80%, Tisza: 46%, 9: 39%.
Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this