Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:46 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

$327K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-18.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

31% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +18.9pp

6% → 25%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

12% YES (+3.4pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 86¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $327K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1651996