Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:23 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES

72%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

25% / 29%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+16.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: +15.0pp

21% → 36%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Current

26% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 28%99%

Buy YES@ 28¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1652002