Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
0% / 3%
Spread
2.70pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665867
This event has 30 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori: 32%, Ricardo Belmont: 22%, Rafael López Aliaga: 22%.
Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peru
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+14.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this