Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 5% and 10%?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.1pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -7.4% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$699
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
1% / 8%
Spread
6.50pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 5% and 10%?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $699 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 6.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 5% and 10%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665864
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 76%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.
Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Per
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this