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Markets/Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?
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Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?

Closed April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$671

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.80pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+42.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $671 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665863

Outcome Markets89 markets

This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 76%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.

Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round
76%
Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first ro
63%
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
42%
Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian
41%
Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian
34%
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
29%
Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first roun
28%
Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first
26%
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
25%
Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first rou
21%
Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first
18%
Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first roun
18%
Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round
16%
Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first roun
15%
another outcome occur in the the first round of the 202
13%
Alfonso López Chau finish in third place in the first r
11%
Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round
9%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the
9%
Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first rou
8%
Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first roun
7%
Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round
6%
Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first
6%
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
5%
Carlos Espá finish in second place in the first round o
5%
Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Per
5%
Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of
4%
Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Per
3%
Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Per
3%
Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first roun
3%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the f
3%
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
3%
Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round
3%
Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first roun
2%
Enrique Valderrama finish in third place in the first r
2%
Fernando Olivera finish in third place in the first rou
2%
Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of
2%
George Forsyth finish in third place in the first round
2%
Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first
2%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round
2%
Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round
2%
Carlos Espá finish in third place in the first round of
2%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the firs
2%
José Williams finish in third place in the first round
2%

Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Per

1%
José Luna finish in third place in the first round of t
1%
Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round o
1%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third place in the first
1%
César Acuña finish in third place in the first round of
1%
Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in the first round
1%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first r
1%
Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in the first roun
1%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in the first roun
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in the first round
0%
Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round
0%
César Acuña finish in second place in the first round o
0%
Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first
0%
Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round o
0%
Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first
0%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first
0%
Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place in the first rou
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round
0%
José Luna finish in second place in the first round of
0%
George Forsyth finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in second place in the fir
0%
Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first rou
0%
Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first ro
0%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first roun
0%
José Williams finish in second place in the first round
0%
Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in second place in the first
0%
Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first r
0%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first
0%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the firs
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in the first round
0%
César Acuña finish in first place in the first round of
0%
Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round
0%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in the first round
0%
Fernando Olivera finish in first place in the first rou
0%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first roun
0%
Enrique Valderrama finish in first place in the first r
0%
José Williams finish in first place in the first round
0%
Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in the first round
0%
José Luna finish in first place in the first round of t
0%
Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in the first roun
0%
George Forsyth finish in first place in the first round
0%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place in the first r
0%
Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of
0%
Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of
0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-28.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly28.6%
½ Kelly14.3%
Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 28.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this