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Markets/Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
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Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$524

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+37.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian…

2026

Full event →
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place
59%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in
45%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in th
29%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place
19%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco
18%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the
16%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
13%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
12%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in
12%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in
11%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third plac
11%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
10%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
10%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in
10%
Will José Williams finish in third place in t
8%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
7%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the
7%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the
6%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i
5%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t
5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in
5%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
5%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third plac
5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place i
5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
4%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in
4%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the f
3%
the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place i
3%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the
3%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third plac
3%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
2%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in
2%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in
2%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i
1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place
1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla
1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in
0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac
0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place
0%

46 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-31.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly31.0%
½ Kelly15.5%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 31.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $524 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656507

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