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Markets/Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Closes October 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$654

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

0% / 7%

Spread

7.10pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian…

2026

Full event →
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place
59%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in
39%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in th
28%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place
19%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco
18%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the
15%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
13%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third plac
13%
Will José Williams finish in third place in t
13%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
12%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in
12%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
12%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in
12%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third plac
10%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
10%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in
9%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
8%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third plac
7%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the
7%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in
7%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in
6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place i
6%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the
6%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t
5%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
5%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i
4%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place i
3%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in
3%
the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the f
3%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the
3%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
3%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in
2%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in
1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla
1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in
0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac
0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place
0%

46 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $654 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 7.10 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365890

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