Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$30K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Biggest move: -8.6pp
18% → 9%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
19% YES — highest in period
Mar 15, 2026
Current
12% YES (+0.6pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947288
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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