Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
7% / 7%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Biggest move: +6.0pp
2% → 8%
Mar 14, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
9% YES (-1.1pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947289
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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