Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 09:13 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

$61K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

40% / 41%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

41%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

40% YES — highest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Current

38% YES (+2.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 50%99%

Buy YES@ 50¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 50¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672917