Markets/Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:35 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

47%YES

53%NO

Volume 24h

$54K

Liquidity

$186K

Bid / Ask

46% / 48%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

Full event →

Spread: Raptors (-1.5)

59%

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

56%

Spread: Raptors (-3.5)

52%

Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

47%

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

48% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 47%99%

Buy YES@ 47¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 53¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-4.5)" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Spread: Raptors (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1685764

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