Markets/Spread: Raptors (-11.5)

Spread: Raptors (-11.5)

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:49 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

44%YES

56%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$189K

Bid / Ask

42% / 44%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

Full event →

Spread: Raptors (-10.5)

47%

Spread: Raptors (-11.5)

43%

Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

40%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

43% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 44%99%

Buy YES@ 44¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-11.5)" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Spread: Raptors (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693924

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