Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
Closed March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$491K
Liquidity
$44K
Bid / Ask
47% / 48%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
48%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Trough probability
14% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 24, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
61%
Mar 25, 2026
Biggest move: -32.5pp
47% → 14%
Mar 26, 2026
Peak probability
61% YES — highest in period
Mar 25, 2026
Current
45% YES (+31.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Pistons (-3.5)" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $491K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: Pistons (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706372
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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