Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)
Closed March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
4% / 64%
Spread
60.00pp
Expert Signal
47%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
35% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Trough probability
18% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
56%
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: +38.0pp
18% → 56%
Mar 26, 2026
Current
56% YES (+38.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Pistons (-1.5)" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 60.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: Pistons (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1721615
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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Full price history for your own analysis.