Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$757
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
43% / 45%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
May
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $757 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1708086
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.