Iran leadership change by May 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
30% / 32%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
31%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran leadership change by May 31?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
35% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Current
31% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran leadership change by May 31?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Iran leadership change by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1708132
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