Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$143K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
74% / 75%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
73%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1?" at 73% YES / 27% NO. In the last 24 hours, $143K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 73%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 73%, NO 27%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717486
This event has 25 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
76% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Trough probability
20% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 27, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
56%
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
45%
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +39.0pp
45% → 84%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
84% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
74% YES (-10.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this