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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
93%NO

Volume 24h

$170K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $170K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717488

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-46.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

63% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Trough probability

5% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +18.6pp

7% → 26%

Apr 1, 2026

Current

16% YES (-10.1pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+6.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+6.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this