Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$170K
Liquidity
$32K
Bid / Ask
7% / 9%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $170K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717488
This event has 25 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Trough probability
5% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: +18.6pp
7% → 26%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
16% YES (-10.1pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this