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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES
5%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

95% / 96%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731478

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

94% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

96% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.1%
½ Kelly5.6%
Buy NO@ 5¢

-11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this