ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
Share on X

Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$56K

Bid / Ask

18% / 19%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718882

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5: 90%, Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5: 73%, Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Te: 71%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢
Edge

+2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this