Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
Closes April 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$56K
Bid / Ask
18% / 19%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718882
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5: 90%, Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5: 73%, Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Te: 71%.
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Current
19% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this