Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?
Closes April 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$34K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.80pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786314
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 72%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?: 35%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 25%.
Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 30, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
3%
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: -46.1pp
50% → 4%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
3% YES (-1.3pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this