Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?
Closes April 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$31K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
23% / 27%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
25%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786335
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 71%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?: 36%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 25%.
Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
21% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 30, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: +17.5pp
43% → 61%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
61% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
24% YES (+2.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this