ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?
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Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES
65%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

14% / 17%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.8pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786325

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-30.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

15% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

27%

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -40.5pp

67% → 27%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

37% YES (-7.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 36%99%
Buy YES@ 36¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this