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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$38K

Liquidity

$34K

Bid / Ask

5% / 7%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786348

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-7.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

5% YES — lowest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +5.5pp

13% → 19%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

19% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

6% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this