Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$267
Bid / Ask
25% / 79%
Spread
54.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 54.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847737
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" thi: 83%, Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12): 81%, Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predi: 68%.
Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
57% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
42% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +14.5pp
42% → 56%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
56% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this