Will Trump say "Pam" or "Bondi" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$145
Bid / Ask
16% / 90%
Spread
74.00pp
Expert Signal
54%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Pam" or "Bondi" this week? (April 12)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 74.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Pam" or "Bondi" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847722
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12): 84%, Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" thi: 81%, Trump say "Kharg Island" this week? (April 12: 68%.
Trump say "Pam" or "Bondi" this week? (April 12)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
49% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: -19.5pp
69% → 49%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
50% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this