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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 9?
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Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 9?

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$33K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+25.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 9?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1924243

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢

-10.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly10.1%
½ Kelly5.1%
Buy NO+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 10.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this