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Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

75%YES
25%NO
Vol 24h$8K
Liquidity$18K
Bid / Ask70% / 74%
Spread4.00pp
ClosesApr 23, 2026

FM Estimate

80%

Market Price

78%
↓ Underpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals+6.3pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-2.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2034715