Markets/Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:36 PM UTC

Closes April 13, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$44K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Masters tournament?

18%

the 2026 Masters tournament?

10%

the 2026 Masters tournament?

59 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/568633