Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Closes May 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 18, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569339
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.