Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Closes June 21, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$35K
Bid / Ask
41% / 43%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
42%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
53% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Trough probability
36% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
46%
Mar 7, 2026
Biggest move: -9.0pp
55% → 46%
Mar 7, 2026
Current
42% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569368
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