Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Closes October 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$65K
Liquidity
$404K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2026
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $65K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637002
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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